Development and validation of a prediction model for premature progesterone elevation during early-follicular phase long-acting GnRH-a long protocol.
Nomogram predicts premature progesterone elevation with only modest accuracy in IVF
Development and validation of a prediction model for premature progesterone elevation during early-follicular phase long-acting GnRH-a long protocol.
In controlled ovarian stimulation (controlled ovarian stimulation) cycles, premature progesterone elevation (premature progesterone elevation) on the HCG trigger day is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes after in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET).
The aim of this study was to analyze the influencing factors of premature progesterone elevation with the early-follicular phase long-acting GnRH-a long protocol (EFLL) and to explore a dynamic risk-assessment nomogram for premature progesterone elevation to inform risk stratification and early clinical adjustment.
Were randomly assigned to the training or validation cohort for nomogram development and testing at a ratio of 8:2.
correctly ranks higher vs lower risk about 68% of the time, only fair discrimination
The incidence of premature progesterone elevation in the training cohort was 20.51%.
Multivariate logistic regression showed that BMI, basal FSH, basal progesterone (bP), AMH, AFC, total duration of Gn, total dosage of exogenous HMG, FSH and P on the 6th day of Gn were found to be independent influencing factors of premature progesterone elevation, and a nomogram model was constructed accordingly.
Our nomogram for estimating premature progesterone elevation demonstrates modest discriminative ability and may serve as a preliminary risk stratification tool in controlled ovarian stimulation cycles.
It may assist clinicians in identifying patients at higher risk of premature progesterone elevation, thereby informing clinical judgment.