Longitudinal Analysis of Testicular Cancer Patient Volume and Co-Occurring Urological Conditions Using the Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) Database in South Korea (2020-2024) with Exploratory Forecasts for 2026-2028.
Testicular cancer patient volume in South Korea increased substantially from 2020 to 2024.
Longitudinal Analysis of Testicular Cancer Patient Volume and Co-Occurring Urological Conditions Using the Health Insurance Review and Assessment (HIRA) Database in South Korea (2020-2024) with Exploratory Forecasts for 2026-2028.
Testicular cancer (testicular cancer) is the most common solid malignancy in young males globally, yet population-level longitudinal data characterizing claims-based patient volume trends and co-occurring urological condition burden in South Korea remain limited.
This study aimed to describe national trends in testicular cancer patient volume from 2020 to 2024, quantify exploratory associations with co-occurring urological and oncological conditions using aggregate annual counts, and generate exploratory 2026-2028 forecasts using validated statistical methods.
We conducted a retrospective longitudinal analysis of administrative claims data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment (Health Insurance Review and Assessment) database of South Korea (2020-2024).
Exploratory ensemble forecasts projected 3287 (95% prediction interval [PI]: 2856-3540), 3767 (95% PI: 2962-3749), and 4531 (95% PI: 3066-3962) patients in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, under a continued linear-trend assumption.
Testicular cancer patient volume showed strong positive exploratory correlations with chronic kidney disease (r = 0.946, p < 0.05), prostate cancer (r = 0.945), kidney cancer (r = 0.932), benign prostatic hyperplasia (r = 0.932), carcinoma in situ (r = 0.937), and bladder cancer (r = 0.928); given n = 5 annual observations, these reflect parallel secular trends and must not be interpreted causally.
Testicular cancer patient volume in South Korea increased substantially over 2020-2024, with exploratory forecasts projecting continued growth through 2028.
Parallel upward trends in co-occurring urological and oncological conditions are consistent with shared secular drivers including population ageing and improved detection, though individual-level causal inference is not possible from aggregate claims data.