Development and validation of a nomogram prediction model for mild pulmonary arterial hypertension risk in children with left-to-right shunt congenital heart disease.
Nomogram using 5 clinical factors predicted mild pulmonary arterial hypertension risk in children with congenital heart disease
Development and validation of a nomogram prediction model for mild pulmonary arterial hypertension risk in children with left-to-right shunt congenital heart disease.
Mild pulmonary arterial hypertension (pulmonary arterial hypertension) represents an early and potentially reversible complication stage in children with congenital structural heart disease (CHD).
This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting the risk of mild pulmonary arterial hypertension in children with left-to-right shunt CHD.
This single-center retrospective study enrolled 340 children diagnosed with CHD who underwent cardiac catheterization at the Department of Pediatrics, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, between January 2005 and April 2022.
correctly ranks higher risk children most of the time (AUROC scale, 1.0 is perfect)
Early identification of high-risk children is crucial for improving prognosis.
Patients were divided into a training set (n = 237) and an internal validation set (n = 103) at a 7:3 ratio using stratified random sampling.
In the training set, predictors were selected from 35 candidate variables using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression combined with 10-fold cross-validation, and the final prediction model was constructed using multivariate logistic regression.
This model integrates easily accessible clinical, imaging, and demographic indicators, facilitating the early identification of high-risk children and providing a practical tool for personalized intervention and clinical decision-making.