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Cohort studyHeart rhythm O2 · 2026

Amplified P-wave duration predicts incident atrial fibrillation in the general population: Results from the Hamburg City Health Study.

Lena R Koch, Silvia Becker, Ana Bošnjak … Martin Eichenlaub

CardiologyCohort study

Longest P-wave duration linked to higher rate of new atrial fibrillation

Amplified P-wave duration predicts incident atrial fibrillation in the general population: Results from the Hamburg City Health Study.

Lena R Koch et al. · Heart rhythm O2 · 2026

Background

Clinical risk factors identify subjects at risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) with only mediocre accuracy.

Purpose

This study aimed to assess whether amplified PWD can predict incident AF in the general population.

Methods

Amplified PWD was assessed manually on a signal-modified ECG in 2134 participants from the population-based Hamburg City Health Study.

n = 2134 participants

HR 2.02

Results

Highest third of amplified P-wave duration had ~2x the rate of new atrial fibrillation

n = 2134 participants

More results

A comprehensive combined ECG/transthoracic echocardiography model achieved a concordance index of 0.770, with age (HR 1.07; P = .020) and left atrial volume (HR 1.02; P = .020) remaining significant predictors.

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Conclusion

Amplified PWD as a novel ECG-based marker predicts incident AF in a population-based cohort and may provide a pragmatic ECG-derived marker of atrial cardiomyopathy for risk assessment beyond conventional risk stratification.

Post

Amplified P-wave duration predicts incident atrial fibrillation in the general population: Results from the Hamburg City Health Study.

Longest P-wave duration linked to higher rate of new atrial fibrillation

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