Early Radiographic Changes Predict Radiographic Stability in Distal Radius Fractures: Development and Validation of an Explainable Predictive Model.

Early radiographic trajectory, particularly first-week changes in volar tilt, predicts the timing of stability far more accurately than baseline features alone.

A substantial proportion of conservatively managed distal radius fractures stabilize earlier than conventional protocols assume, suggesting that a trajectory-guided approach could safely reduce late follow-up imaging and immobilization duration in selected patients.

Prospective validation is needed before clinical implementation.