External Validation of a Prognostic Model for Outcome After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury at 6 Months Post…

Cohort studyEuropean journal of neurology· Jun 2026

External Validation of a Prognostic Model for Outcome After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury at 6 Months Post Injury.

Robin van Pinxteren, Marilien C Marzolla, Melloney L M Wijenberg … Jeroen J Roor

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Brain Injury MedicineCohort studyPrognosisQ1IF 4.2

Model underestimated recovery after mild traumatic brain injury: predicted 46%, actual 75%

External Validation of a Prognostic Model for Outcome After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury at 6 Months Post Injury.

Robin van Pinxteren … Jeroen J Roor

European journal of neurology · Jun 2026

Background

While most people fully recover after mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), a substantial minority experience persistent symptoms and incomplete recovery.

Purpose

This study aimed to externally validate the UPFRONT-model in an independent sample.

Methods

A prospective, longitudinal, multicenter cohort study with 126 mTBI patients recruited from emergency and neurology departments (ED) of six hospitals in the Netherlands was performed.

n = 126 mTBI patients

Results

Model predicted 46% full recovery, but 75% of patients actually recovered.

Predicted

46%

Observed

75%

More results

The model showed acceptable discriminative ability (AUC = 0.74), comparable to the development sample (AUC = 0.77).

Despite differences in some predictor effects, psychological variables were robust and consistent across samples.

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Conclusion · 1 of 2

The UPFRONT-model demonstrated solid discriminative performance in an external cohort, but tended to underestimate the likelihood of complete recovery. Further validation and optimization are needed before clinical implementation.

Conclusion · 2 of 2

The model holds promise for early identification of at-risk patients, enabling targeted interventions following mTBI.

External Validation of a Prognostic Model for Outcome After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury at 6 Months Post Injury.

External Validation of a Prognostic Model for Outcome After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury at 6 Months Post Injury.

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