Development and validation of a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting epidural-related…

Cohort studyInternational journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics· Mar 2026

Development and validation of a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting epidural-related maternal fever during labor analgesia: A retrospective cohort study.

Junyang Ma, Ping Lu, Meiqi Sun, Jing Cheng

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Obstetric AnesthesiaCohort studyPrognosis

Model using routine labor variables predicted epidural-related maternal fever with AUC 0.75.

Development and validation of a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting epidural-related maternal fever during labor analgesia: A retrospective cohort study.

Junyang Ma … Jing Cheng

International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · Mar 2026

Background

Epidural labor analgesia is associated with intrapartum maternal fever, termed epidural-related maternal fever (epidural-related maternal fever).

Purpose

We aimed to develop and internally validate a multivariable prediction model for epidural-related maternal fever among parturients receiving programmed intermittent epidural bolus (programmed intermittent epidural bolus).

Methods

We conducted a single-center retrospective cohort study of term (37-41 weeks), singleton, cephalic pregnancies with vaginal delivery who received programmed intermittent epidural bolus between January and December 2024.

n = 2800 women

0.75

Results

0.75

labor and delivery details predict fever moderately well, not perfectly

n = 2800 women

More results

Among 2800 women, 308 (11.0%) developed epidural-related maternal fever.

Independent predictors included longer first-stage labor duration, primiparity, artificial rupture of membranes, amniotic fluid contamination ≥grade 2, and higher cumulative oxytocin dose.

More results

Decision curve analysis suggested net benefit over treat-all/treat-none strategies across a wide range of threshold probabilities.

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Conclusion

A multivariable logistic regression model using routinely available intrapartum variables demonstrated stable discrimination, calibration, and potential clinical utility for epidural-related maternal fever risk assessment and bedside implementation.

Development and validation of a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting epidural-related maternal fever during labor analgesia: A retrospective cohort study.

Development and validation of a multivariable logistic regression model for predicting epidural-related maternal fever during labor analgesia: A retrospective cohort study.

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