A systematic review of the current prognostic tools used to predict the survival length of people living…

ReviewPalliative medicine· Jul 2026

A systematic review of the current prognostic tools used to predict the survival length of people living with advanced dementia.

Abigail Maughan, Andrea Bruun, Nuriye Kupeli … Nicola White

Palliative & End-of-LifeReviewPrognosisQ1IF 6.0

PRO-MADE model showed the highest accuracy predicting survival in advanced dementia

A systematic review of the current prognostic tools used to predict the survival length of people living with advanced dementia.

Abigail Maughan … Nicola White

Palliative medicine · Jul 2026 · Q1 in General Medicine

Background

Dementia is a progressive neurodegenerative condition, yet it is frequently under-recognised as terminal, contributing to delayed or inadequate end-of-life care.

Purpose

To identify and review current prognostic models designed for survival estimation of people with advanced dementia.

Methods

Systematic review prospectively registered on PROSPERO, supported by a narrative synthesis of key findings.

n = 225,553 individuals

Results

AUC 0.76

higher scores mean better prediction of survival, but even the top model is only fair

n = 225,553 individuals

More results

Six prognostic tools were identified across seven studies, including 225,553 individuals with advanced dementia across community, hospital, and nursing home settings.

Key prognostic indicators included demographic factors, comorbidities, and functional dependency.

More results

Five studies demonstrated high risk of bias due to methodological limitations and lack of external validation.

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Conclusion · 1 of 2

Current prognostic tools for advanced dementia show limited and inconsistent accuracy and should not be used in isolation.

Conclusion · 2 of 2

Further research should focus on robust external validation across various countries and healthcare settings before one model can be recommended for widespread application.

A systematic review of the current prognostic tools used to predict the survival length of people living with advanced dementia.

A systematic review of the current prognostic tools used to predict the survival length of people living with advanced dementia.

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