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Cohort studyInvestigative ophthalmology & visual science · 2026

Early Prediction Model for Retinopathy of Prematurity Using Placental and Neonatal Risk Factors.

Salma El Emrani, Frank Doornkamp, Jelle J Goeman … Lotte E van der Meeren

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OphthalmologyCohort study

Adding placental data to a preterm birth model could cut retinopathy of prematurity eye exams by 25%.

Early Prediction Model for Retinopathy of Prematurity Using Placental and Neonatal Risk Factors.

Salma El Emrani … Lotte E van der Meeren

Investigative ophthalmology & visual science · 2026

Purpose

We hypothesized that high-risk neonates could be identified much earlier if placental and early postnatal risk factors are incorporated, so that this high risk can be considered during neonatal treatment well before retinopathy of prematurity screening begins.

Methods

We included 591 neonates born ≤32 weeks of gestational age (gestational age) and/or birthweight (birthweight) ≤1500 grams.

n = 591 neonates

Results

25%

screens far fewer preemie eyes without missing serious retinopathy of prematurity cases

n = 591 neonates

More results

The PAPROP model had a discriminatory ability between retinopathy of prematurity presence and absence of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76-0.86) compared to 0.78 in the reference gestational age&birthweight model.

This model had a sensitivity of 0.97 and specificity of 0.44 in the test set (threshold 10%).

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Conclusion · 1 of 2

The PAPROP model has a high ability to predict retinopathy of prematurity development at the end of the second postnatal week, has a potential high clinical utility, and is likely cost-effective.

Conclusion · 2 of 2

After further external validation, it may aid in creating a personalized neonatal treatment approach for retinopathy of prematurity prevention in high-risk neonates.

Post

Early Prediction Model for Retinopathy of Prematurity Using Placental and Neonatal Risk Factors.

Adding placental data to a preterm birth model could cut retinopathy of prematurity eye exams by 25%.

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