Evaluating the impact of follow-up interval selection on the demand-capacity gap in ophthalmology.
Lengthening diabetic retinopathy follow-up interval sharply cut clinic appointment demand.
Evaluating the impact of follow-up interval selection on the demand-capacity gap in ophthalmology.
Outpatient ophthalmology services face rising demand, and delays in follow-up can result in avoidable sight loss.
We aimed to develop a generalisable framework to quantify how follow-up interval choice influences service demand, using diabetic retinopathy as a case study.
We framed follow-up scheduling as a three-way trade-off between appointment demand, disease detection delay, and risk of progression.
Small changes in follow-up interval produced large shifts in demand.
Illustrative examples in injection and glaucoma services showed similar effects.
Follow-up interval is a powerful, modifiable determinant of outpatient demand. Quantifying trade-offs between demand, detection delay, and disease progression risk supports decision-making regarding follow-up interval selection.
This framework complements, rather than replaces, capacity expansion and is generalisable across other chronic disease services.