A parsimonious preoperative prediction model for postoperative sepsis following upper urinary tract calculi…

Cohort studyUrolithiasis· May 2026

A parsimonious preoperative prediction model for postoperative sepsis following upper urinary tract calculi surgery.

Xin Tian, Ruimin Liu, Fei Qin, Qiuping Zhang

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Surgical Critical CareCohort studyPrognosisQ2IF 2.4

A four-predictor preoperative model accurately predicts postoperative sepsis after kidney stone surgery.

A parsimonious preoperative prediction model for postoperative sepsis following upper urinary tract calculi surgery.

Xin Tian … Qiuping Zhang

Urolithiasis · May 2026

Methods

A retrospective cohort of 260 patients treated between May 2024 and April 2025 was analyzed.

n = 260 patients

Results

AUROC; 1.0 is perfect, so the model reliably separates who will and won't develop sepsis

AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.92)

CI excludes the null - significant

More results

Candidate predictors were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression with the one-standard-error rule (λ.1se), followed by multivariable logistic regression modeling.

Among the included patients, 43 (16.5%) developed postoperative sepsis.

More results

The final model incorporated four predictors: stone count ≥ 2 (OR = 3.25, P = 0.006), perirenal fat stranding (OR = 3.08, P = 0.006), pre-positive urine nitrite (OR = 4.29, P = 0.003), and pre-positive urine culture (OR = 4.53, P < 0.001).

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Conclusion

This parsimonious model may facilitate early risk stratification and support perioperative decision-making; however, external validation is warranted.