Appraisal of joint tobacco and alcohol tax interventions for harm reduction in the UK: the SYNTAX integrated…

Cross-sectionalPublic health research (Southampton, England)· Aug 2026

Appraisal of joint tobacco and alcohol tax interventions for harm reduction in the UK: the SYNTAX integrated evidence synthesis project.

Alan Brennan, Duncan Gillespie, Robert Pryce … John Holmes

Addiction MedicineCross-sectionalClinical practice

Raising cider tax to match beer could cut deaths 30-fold versus 2023 reform

Appraisal of joint tobacco and alcohol tax interventions for harm reduction in the UK: the SYNTAX integrated evidence synthesis project.

Alan Brennan … John Holmes

Public health research (Southampton, England) · Aug 2026

Background

Alcohol and tobacco are risk factors for non-communicable disease and deaths in England.

Purpose

Work package 1: describe potential tobacco and alcohol tax policies; work package 2: analyse purchasing patterns across population subgroups; work package 3: estimate industry tax-pass-through; consumer response to price changes for 12 products; work package 4: simulate impact of 33 policy options, United Kingdom Government 2021 proposals to restructure alcohol duty and (after project end date) 2023 alcohol duty reform.

Methods

Effects of United Kingdom tax policies in England, covering 2017-50.

Results

30

times larger

matching cider tax to beer tax would cut far more deaths than the 2023 reform

More results

Work package 1 identified policy options.

Work package 3 showed that retailers increased prices of expensive products by more than expected after tax rises, keeping cheap product prices lower.

Work package 3 showed statistically significant participation and consumption price responsiveness for all 12 products.

More results

Work package 4 compared 33 policies, showing that higher tax increases, especially for cider and hand-rolled tobacco, are effective at reducing smoking rates, drinking and deaths over 20 years.

“

Conclusion · 1 of 3

Combined increases in tax on tobacco and alcohol could potentially be more effective at reducing disease, National Health Service costs, deaths and health inequalities than raising tax on only one product.

Conclusion · 2 of 3

Potential trade-offs could exist between health benefits and effects of tobacco and alcohol tax increases on financial burden for those who continue consuming both products.

Conclusion · 3 of 3

Future tobacco or alcohol tax analyses should factor in inter-linkages between both commodities.

Appraisal of joint tobacco and alcohol tax interventions for harm reduction in the UK: the SYNTAX integrated evidence synthesis project.

Appraisal of joint tobacco and alcohol tax interventions for harm reduction in the UK: the SYNTAX integrated evidence synthesis project.

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