Development of a risk assessment model for multimorbidity of diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart…

Cohort studyBMC cardiovascular disorders· Jan 2026

Development of a risk assessment model for multimorbidity of diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease with XGBoost in primary care in Shanghai, China: a retrospective study.

Ning Chen, Peipei Zhang, Feng Fan … Jianwei Shi

Chronic Disease ManagementCohort studyPrognosisQ2IF 3.1

XGBoost model predicted diabetes-hypertension-coronary heart disease multimorbidity risk with high accuracy

Development of a risk assessment model for multimorbidity of diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease with XGBoost in primary care in Shanghai, China: a retrospective study.

Ning Chen … Jianwei Shi

BMC cardiovascular disorders · Jan 2026

Background

Multimorbidity has emerged as a growing global health concern.

Purpose

This study aimed to develop a comprehensive risk assessment model for the multimorbidity of diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease among older adults in the community, utilizing large-scale data from Shanghai, China.

Methods

Retrospective data spanning 2017 to 2019 were collected from 40,261 residents across 47 community health centers.

n = 40,261 residents

Results

0.822

correctly ranked risk in most patient pairs, on a scale to 1.0

n = 40,261 residents

More results

The dataset was split into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets.

A total of 46 features were incorporated into the final comprehensive risk assessment model for the multimorbidity of diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease.

These parameters demonstrate the high superiority of the constructed model.

“

Conclusion · 1 of 3

The XGBoost-based risk assessment model for the multimorbidity of diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease, integrated clinical and public health data from community residents.

Conclusion · 2 of 3

It identifies multidimensional predictors across four dimensions, underscoring its practical value in supporting integrated risk assessment and informing targeted health management strategies for individuals with multimorbidity.

Conclusion · 3 of 3

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.

Development of a risk assessment model for multimorbidity of diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease with XGBoost in primary care in Shanghai, China: a retrospective study.

Development of a risk assessment model for multimorbidity of diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease with XGBoost in primary care in Shanghai, China: a retrospective study.

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