Clinical Prediction of Necrotizing Pneumonia in Children With Mycoplasma pneumoniae: A Model Based on Early…

Cohort studyCanadian respiratory journal· 2026

Clinical Prediction of Necrotizing Pneumonia in Children With Mycoplasma pneumoniae: A Model Based on Early Response to Therapy.

Jia Feng Zheng, Meng Yao Zhang, Han Quan Dong … Yong Sheng Xu

Pulmonology & Critical CareCohort studyPrognosisQ2IF 2.2

A nomogram model accurately predicts necrotizing pneumonia in children unresponsive to macrolide therapy

Clinical Prediction of Necrotizing Pneumonia in Children With Mycoplasma pneumoniae: A Model Based on Early Response to Therapy.

Jia Feng Zheng … Yong Sheng Xu

Canadian respiratory journal · 2026 · Q2 in General Medicine

Purpose

This study aimed to identify factors that predict progression to necrotizing pneumonia (necrotizing pneumonia) in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia) who fail to respond to initial therapy and to develop a predictive model to support early clinical decision-making.

Methods

Were classified into an observation group (n = 106, those who developed necrotizing pneumonia) and a control group (n = 130, those who did not).

n = 106,

Results

model correctly distinguishes cases most of the time; 1.0 would be perfect

OR by subgroup · 95% CI

More results

In multivariable analysis, increased white blood cell (white blood cell) count (OR = 2.484, 95% CI: 1.406-4.613), longer fever duration (OR = 1.618, 95% CI: 1.217-2.193), pleural effusion (OR = 3.955, 95% CI: 1.664-10.00), and elevated C-reactive protein (c-reactive protein) (OR = 2.152, 95% CI: 1.547-3.074) were independently associated with necrotizing pneumonia among children with mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia after initial treatment failure.

More results

Calibration curves indicated close agreement between predicted and observed risks in both the derivation cohort (p = 0.588) and the validation cohort (p = 0.424).

Decision curve analysis suggested net clinical benefit across relevant threshold probabilities.

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Conclusion

Among children with macrolide-unresponsive Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia, higher white blood cell count, prolonged fever, pleural effusion, and higher c-reactive protein identify increased risk of necrotizing pneumonia.

Clinical Prediction of Necrotizing Pneumonia in Children With Mycoplasma pneumoniae: A Model Based on Early Response to Therapy.

Clinical Prediction of Necrotizing Pneumonia in Children With Mycoplasma pneumoniae: A Model Based on Early Response to Therapy.

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